2018 Results for CPI, Stocks, Bonds - Calculators Updated
- January 14, 2019
- by Wealth Meta Admin
Our calculators have been updated with 2018 data for CPI, S&P 500, bond, and cash returns.
2018 raw numbers:
- The CPI (consumer price index) increased by 2.4%, which is the highest it has been since 2011 but still considered relatively tame.
- The S&P 500 had a -4.23% return, the first negative return since 2008.
- The 90-day T bill had a 2.37% return (which we consider as the cash return in our retirement calculators).
- 10 year Treasury Bonds had a -0.02% return.
For most of 2018 stocks were looking good until a bear market / correction started in the last part of the year. The 90-day T Bill return ticked above 2.3% for the first time since 2007. Bond returns were tame, likely because of small rate hikes by the fed and the expectation there are more to come. Cash was the only asset category that had a positive return for the year.
Our retirement calculators use backtesting based on historical data since 1928. 2018 was a down year in term of stock returns and it did move the average return down a little. When running a Nest Egg Simulation with default inputs the average resulting balance went down by $170k (-3.2%). The default settings are to retire with $1M (invested 70% stocks, 30% bonds), with an initial withdrawal amount of $40,000 that gets adjusted by the CPI every year, and to let it run for 30 years. Still the simulation high, low, % above zero and % below zero stayed the same.
Average Resulting Balance $5.30M (2017 only)
Average Resulting Balance $5.13M (with 2018 update)
Other results are exactly the same:
Simulations Ending Above Zero (money left over) 98.9%
Simulations Ending Below Zero (money ran out early) 1.1%
Simulation Low -$205,544
Simulation High $16.08M
This is yet another piece of evidence that supports the idea of long term investing.
- CPI data https://fred.stlouisfed.org.
- Stock market, bonds, and cash returns are from Professor Damodaran's Historical Returns spreadsheet.